Several public opinion surveys rank Salvador Nasralla as the leading candidate in voting preferences for the 2025 general elections, within a context characterized by conflicts among the primary political parties of the nation.
Five months ahead of the nationwide elections in Honduras, the latest survey outcomes indicate a close race, with Salvador Nasralla, who is the present candidate for the Liberal Party, positioned at the forefront in two major polls released in May. These findings illustrate a period of crucial political choices, where potential coalitions of opposition and the solidification of nominations could significantly influence the direction of the election proceedings.
Surveys show Nasralla leading
A study conducted by the US firm Expedition Strategies in May 2025 places Salvador Nasralla with 25.2% of the vote, followed by Nasry Asfura of the National Party with 21.4% and Rixi Moncada of the ruling LIBRE party with 16%. In addition, the poll highlights that Nasralla is the most frequently mentioned option to lead a possible opposition alliance, with 37% support in that scenario.
Another survey, carried out by the Paradigma survey company from May 4 to 17, shows comparable outcomes. In this survey, Nasralla achieves 25.6%, once more followed by Asfura with 21.2% and Moncada with 11.3%. The agreement between these two surveys strengthens the belief that Nasralla’s leadership is steady at this stage of the electoral timeline.
Differences among research and debate about data application
Despite the convergence between these two studies, there is no full consensus among the published measurements. A poll by TResearch International, released in March 2025, shows a different configuration: Rixi Moncada was then leading with 44.9%, followed by Nasralla with 27.5% and Asfura with 23.4%. The divergence in the results is attributed to the timing of the study, as well as the methodology used, although no further details have been disclosed.
Amid the disparities, a dispute emerged regarding the spread of a purported survey linked to TResearch that ranked Nasralla in the lead. The company openly refuted the validity of the document, confirming that it was not related to any research carried out by them and repudiating the unapproved utilization of their name and logo. This incident has reignited discussions about the distortion of surveys and their influence on public opinion, particularly in a highly polarized political environment.
Initial situation and anticipations for event parameters
With elections scheduled for November 2025, the political landscape in Honduras continues to develop amid open competition between three main blocs: the ruling party represented by LIBRE, the National Party, and the Liberal Party. Nasralla, who has been a presidential candidate in previous elections and currently represents a faction of the Liberal Party, is once again emerging as a central player in the pre-election scenario.
The potential for a rival coalition is still being debated, especially among groups aiming to form a front against the continuation of the current ruling party. The backing that Nasralla is obtaining as a prospective head of a coalition indicates that his influence might extend beyond his personal campaign, contingent on the decisions made by the parties in the upcoming months.
An electoral process marked by institutional uncertainty
The spread of conflicting surveys and the improper use of statistical information highlight the issues confronting the Honduran election process regarding openness and trustworthiness. Additionally, there are strains among the key political figures and societal hopes about a competition that currently seems lacking a definitive majority.
The development of the contenders, the creation of partnerships, and the stance of established parties in comparison with emerging coalitions will shape the political atmosphere in the latter part of the year. Within this scenario, the importance of voting institutions and civic groups in monitoring and ensuring a fair process will be vital for maintaining democratic stability in the nation.
