Five months before the general elections on November 30, the ruling Libertad y Refundación (LIBRE) party faces a critical juncture marked by internal divisions, allegations of corruption, and a sharp decline in voting intentions. In an increasingly uncertain electoral scenario, the ruling party’s accumulated wear and tear threatens to end its tenure in power.
Internal fractures and loss of cohesion
The selection of Rixi Moncada as the ruling party’s candidate exposed tensions that had been building within LIBRE. The subsequent resignation of Congressman Jorge Cálix, a long-time member of the organization, revealed deep disagreements over the party’s political direction and leadership style. Cálix, along with other leaders who also left the party, denounced authoritarian practices and a culture of exclusion.
In reaction, the leaders of the party organized rallies to show backing for both President Xiomara Castro and Moncada. Nonetheless, these measures did not succeed in changing the image of a diminished group and have been viewed by different groups as efforts to maintain political dominance in challenging circumstances.
Embezzlement controversies and transparency inquiries
The crisis worsened with the revelation of alleged irregularities in the Secretariat of Social Development (SEDESOL), where deputies affiliated with the ruling party were accused of diverting funds allocated to social programs. The most emblematic case was that of Congresswoman Isis Cuéllar, whose suspension was announced along with the cancellation of social funds and an unprecedented measure: the collective resignation of the party from legislative immunity.
Although these decisions seem to be quite decisive, opposition parties, particularly the National Party, have labeled them as gestures meant to distract the public. As per their representatives, the measures taken by the ruling party lack real consequences or thorough investigations to impose responsibility.
Private sector discontent and calls to halt institutional deterioration
Los comentarios críticos no se han restringido solo al ámbito político. Figuras destacadas en el sector empresarial han mostrado su inquietud acerca del rumbo del país. En una declaración hecha recientemente, Eduardo Facussé, quien anteriormente lideró la Cámara de Comercio e Industria de Cortés (CCIC), acusó directamente al gobierno de traicionar el mandato popular mediante prácticas que, según sus palabras, incluyen nepotismo, uso discrecional de fondos públicos, y falta de transparencia en casos emblemáticos como SEDESOL, el fraude de Koriun y las acusaciones de vínculos con redes criminales.
Facussé cautioned about the deterioration of institutions and urged the public to protect the rule of law against what he viewed as an effort to establish an authoritarian and financially unviable system.
Collapse in the polls and reconfiguration of the electoral map
The most recent opinion polls reflect a rapid decline in LIBRE’s voting intentions. According to data collected between May and June, support for the ruling party has ranged between 11% and 28.5%, well below the 42% recorded in March. This downward trend, coupled with volatility between polls, suggests a fragmented electoral base in search of alternatives.
Simultaneously, rival candidates like Salvador Nasralla and Nasry Asfura have made headway, achieving backing levels between 25% and 36%. Public approval also reflects the declining image of the government: President Xiomara Castro has an average score of merely 4.1 out of 10, amidst an environment characterized by ongoing scandals and an increasing sense of ineffectiveness.
A doubtful future for the governing party
The existing scenario poses a significant challenge for LIBRE. Internal turmoil, institutional decline, eroded trust, and public disapproval have undermined its standing prior to the general elections. Continuing on this path, the ruling party faces the potential of not just forfeiting control of the executive office but also jeopardizing the political initiative that led to its rise in 2021.
In this scenario, the outcome will depend on the party’s ability to rebuild its internal structure, address social demands, and offer clear responses to allegations of corruption. Otherwise, the November 30 election could mark a turning point in Honduran politics.