A little over four months before the general elections on November 30, the Honduran ruling party faces growing public delegitimization. The Libertad y Refundación (LIBRE) party, which has led the government since 2022, has been the target of accusations by the political opposition, business organizations, and sectors of civil society, which denounce alleged maneuvers to alter the electoral process and cling to power amid a sharp drop in the polls.
Decrease in polling preferences and erosion of trust
Recent polls, such as those conducted by Pro Encuestas and TResearch, indicate that Rixi Moncada’s presidential candidacy has experienced a sustained decline. Initially positioned as the favorite, Moncada has been overtaken in the polls by nationalist Tito Asfura and liberal Salvador Nasralla, relegating her to third place.
Analysts point to a mix of factors for this downturn: accusations of corruption in public administration, internal discord within the ruling party, weak economic results, and an increasing public view of government management lacking transparency. The dwindling popular backing has aligned with a tougher political discourse from the executive branch and indications of institutional strain that have triggered warnings in different sectors.
Suspicions about the electoral process and institutional control
One of the main sources of controversy is the ruling party’s refusal to allow manual verification of votes, a common practice in previous elections that serves as a cross-checking mechanism for the digitization of results. The opposition and independent organizations warn that eliminating this review could facilitate irregularities and hinder citizen and international audits.
Additionally, there have been accounts of efforts meant to obstruct the implementation of the Preliminary Election Results Transmission System (TREP), which is crucial for ensuring transparency in the vote counting process. Tensions have escalated within the National Electoral Council (CNE), with council members like Cosette López and Ana Paola Hall reporting pressure and endeavors to impede their activities.
Business associations and members of the opposition view these actions as a component of an approach to solidify institutional command over the election process, restrict external supervision, and ensure the ruling party flexibility in case of an electoral loss.
Accusations of ideological alignments and a climate of confrontation
The holding in Tegucigalpa of a session of the São Paulo Forum, with the participation of delegations from left-wing governments in the region, reignited the debate on the international alliances of the LIBRE party. Critical voices pointed out that these links with the Venezuela-Cuba-Nicaragua axis could be aimed at replicating models of governance that prioritize the concentration of power and restrict spaces for democratic participation.
Simultaneously, critics like Eduardo Facussé, who previously headed the Honduran Council of Private Enterprise (COHEP), have cautioned about the potential introduction of a “Venezuela Plan.” This plan could be designed to create instability within institutions, provoke deliberate protests, and cause administrative obstructions, all of which could impede the government’s transition process.
Based on these claims, factions linked to the party in power have engaged in disruptive activities in essential venues like the National Congress and the CNE, a pattern that might undermine the electoral process’s credibility and heighten political division in the nation.
Uncertain scenario ahead of a decisive election
With an increasingly fragmented electoral landscape and a ruling party losing ground in public opinion, Honduras is heading toward elections marked by mistrust, institutional tension, and questioning of the rules of democracy.
Various civil society organizations, business sectors, and political leaders have reiterated the need for robust international observation and mechanisms to safeguard the transparency and legitimacy of the electoral process.
The present circumstances reveal not only the weakness of the democratic agreement in the country, but also the challenge of guiding political rivalry within stable institutional boundaries, in a scenario of increasing public disengagement and skepticism towards government entities.