The national elections in Honduras, set for November 30, 2025, are occurring amid political unrest and institutional doubts. The political landscape is characterized by the dominance of the Liberty and Refoundation Party (LIBRE) over government bodies and an opposition struggling to form a cohesive alternative. Indicators of democratic erosion and conflicts between major institutions like the National Electoral Council and the Armed Forces provoke worries about the process’s transparency and legitimacy.
The political landscape in Honduras is marked by a split opposition, as the National Party and the Liberal Party engage in discussions to create a joint effort. Nonetheless, internal conflicts and disagreements over leadership roles and agendas have made it challenging to establish a robust partnership. The recent primary elections exhibited logistical issues and saw low participation, which heightened concerns about the voting system and led to increased criticism of how institutions are managed.
Institutional control and tensions in the electoral process
The document from Nodos observes that the democratic system in Honduras is under strain and that the party in power retains its dominance by structurally managing institutions. This has led to potential outcomes that involve either continuing with the existing system, experiencing institutional standstill, or facing a constitutional crisis. Friction between the Electoral Council and the military, tasked with handling electoral matters, is causing worries regarding the process’s fairness and effectiveness. Moreover, the absence of changes in electoral law and ongoing political division heighten the likelihood of disputes after the elections.
Different sectors of civil society and the global community have urged the authorities to ensure an open and inclusive voting process, adhering to democratic principles to maintain the country’s political and social stability. The mix of a governing party with institutional power, a fragmented opposition, and a disputed electoral system suggests the potential for an extraordinary institutional crisis in Honduras.
Possible coalition strategies and the ruling party’s reactions
In response to the current situation, the Liberal and National parties have initiated formal discussions to investigate the possibility of forming an opposition alliance, with the goal of contesting the LIBRE Party in the forthcoming elections. In these discussions, they have considered strategies for electoral unity, the allocation of candidacies, and a shared platform emphasizing the protection of democracy, a market-driven economy, and adherence to the constitutional framework. The opposition parties assert that the administration of Xiomara Castro, along with her advisor Manuel Zelaya, has introduced measures aimed at centralizing power, such as utilizing the Public Ministry to act against critics, efforts to manipulate the CNE, and proposals for constitutional amendments.
If the coalition is formed, the two traditional parties could account for more than 50% of the electorate, according to recent polls. Social and business sectors see this union as a viable alternative to limit the ruling party’s progress. For its part, the ruling party has downplayed the impact of a possible opposition alliance, arguing that it offers no solutions for the country. The 2025 electoral process is shaping up to be a referendum between the continuation of the refoundation project promoted by LIBRE and a return to a republican and pro-investment model backed by a unified opposition. The outcome will define the political and institutional direction of Honduras.
