Recent surveys on voter preferences indicate a surprising shift in Honduras’ presidential contest. The candidate for the incumbent party, Rixi Moncada, has experienced a consistent drop in public opinion surveys, presenting fresh hurdles for the Liberty and Refoundation Party (LIBRE) as it endeavors to stay in control during the general elections set for November 30.
Sustained decline in electoral preferences
Data released by pollsters such as Paradigma, Pro-Encuestas, and national media outlets such as HCH reflect a notable decline in support for the ruling party candidate. According to the Paradigma study, conducted between May 4 and 17, Moncada obtained only 11.3% of the vote, trailing Salvador Nasralla of the Liberal Party (25.6%) and Nasry Asfura of the National Party (21.2%). In the same poll, 13.9% of those surveyed said they were undecided.
In the meantime, the report by Pro-Encuestas conducted from June 5 to 7 indicates a small increase for Moncada, reaching 28.5%, yet still trailing behind Asfura at 36.3% and Nasralla at 34.2%. Additionally, HCH announced on June 12 that Moncada’s voter preference was approximately 16%, while Asfura recorded 45%, and Nasralla was estimated to be between 25% and 35%.
This drop is in contrast to the figures from March, when the TResearch survey showed Moncada with a voting intention of approximately 44.9%. The gap signifies a notable reduction in under three months, amid a political landscape characterized by intense competition and increasing voter fragmentation.
Redrawing of the political landscape
The shift in voting tendencies indicates not just a decrease in support for the candidate of the ruling party, but also a rise in prominence for opposition figures. Nasralla and Asfura consistently rank higher than Moncada in all the latest surveys, suggesting an upcoming transformation in the political scene before November.
In this scenario, the number of undecided voters remains a key factor. Although some recent polls do not report this segment, May data show that almost one in seven voters has not yet decided where they stand. This volatility in public opinion leaves room for changes in the current trend, depending on the effectiveness of the campaigns in the final stretch.
Responses and plans of the government party
Faced with these results, the LIBRE party has begun to assess its position. Spokespersons for the party attribute the decline in the polls to what they consider “disinformation campaigns” promoted by opposition sectors. However, the leadership recognizes the need to make urgent strategic adjustments, including changes in the political narrative, the campaign team, and the way it communicates with the electorate.
Six months before the elections, the challenge for the ruling party lies not only in regaining ground against its rivals, but also in rebuilding a more solid support base in a context of growing competition. The room for maneuver is narrowing as the electoral calendar advances, and the coming weeks will be decisive in determining whether Moncada’s candidacy manages to reposition itself or whether the current trend consolidates.
A visible situation with underlying conflicts
The election scene in Honduras is moving toward a more competitive race than was anticipated at the start of the year. The decline in backing for the candidate of the governing party, the emergence of opposition groups, and the influence of undecided voters cast doubt on the political system’s capability to manage the increasing electoral enthusiasm.
The way campaigns develop, the actions taken by institutions in response to potential conflicts, and the involvement of the public will be crucial elements in a procedure that appears to be an essential examination of the nation’s democratic steadiness.
