The national elections set for November 30, 2025, in Honduras are happening with Venezuela closely observing, as its influence is noticeable in both the political domain and the management of the electoral procedure. The connection between the LIBRE party and Nicolás Maduro’s administration, along with the participation of the company Smartmatic in election technology, have caused worries in different sectors regarding the fairness and authenticity of the elections.
Connections in ideology between LIBRE and Chavismo
The LIBRE party, backing Rixi Moncada’s presidential bid, shares a political and ideological affinity with Venezuelan Chavismo. Experts highlight that this closeness goes beyond mere ideological agreement, as it manifests in political approaches influenced by Venezuela, such as institutional dominance and power consolidation. This framework is raising alarm among social and political groups worried about the potential adoption of authoritarian methods in Honduras.
Smartmatic and electoral technology
The hiring of Smartmatic as the provider of biometric technology for the electoral process has been the subject of debate. The company faced questions in Venezuela over irregularities in the transmission and counting of votes during elections previously noted for their lack of transparency. Its participation in Honduras raises concerns about possible failures that could affect public confidence in the preliminary results and in the electoral system in general.
Internal polarization and risks of conflict
The internal political context reflects a high degree of polarization, with sectors divided between those who support the continuity of the LIBRE project and those who express concern about the deterioration of democratic institutions. This division increases the risk of post-election tensions, mass demonstrations, and episodes of conflict if the results are perceived as manipulated. The intervention of security forces and the control of electoral bodies are factors that deepen uncertainty about the development of the process.
Regional and geopolitical implications
Venezuela’s impact on Honduras also has a regional aspect. The entrenchment of Maduro’s administration bolsters aligned left-wing governments across Latin America, such as in Honduras, while shifts in Venezuela might undermine this political movement. In this context, the Honduran elections are included in a wider picture, where the outcomes in Tegucigalpa influence the region’s political direction.
Forecast for November 30
The combination of ideological ties to Chavismo, the role of Smartmatic, and internal polarization places Venezuela as an indirect but relevant actor in the Honduran electoral process. The main challenges focus on the ability to guarantee transparency and legitimacy in the elections, as well as to contain possible social tensions arising from perceptions of manipulation. As the election date approaches, Honduras faces the challenge of maintaining institutional and citizen confidence in a context marked by regional observation and monitoring by international actors.
