In Honduras’s political landscape, the upcoming general elections in November 2025 are emerging as a critical point for the nation’s democratic future. Several commentators, opposition figures, and elements from civil society have highlighted that the absence of cohesion among opposition groups might enable the Libertad y Refundación (LIBRE) party to strengthen its leading status in governance. This scenario prompts fears that the nation might embrace a governance system akin to that found in other Latin American countries where power concentration has reduced institutional counterbalances.
The political landscape is characterized by heightened tensions, involving the extension of the state of emergency, the oversight of crucial entities like the National Electoral Council (CNE), and the enactment of laws under conditions that lack clarity, which have contributed to concerns about potential institutional decline. Additionally, recent protests by opposition groups and international alerts about the need to uphold the democratic process have increased attention. Consequently, the nation is at a pivotal juncture where the opposition’s effectiveness in formulating a unified approach will play a crucial role in shaping the power dynamics.
The danger of divided opposition and LIBRE’s strengthening
The division among the opposition in Honduras is a major hurdle for those aiming to stop the consolidation of authority by LIBRE. In the National Congress, the power dynamics have altered with the exit of notable individuals like Jorge Cálix, complicating the process of forming majorities and emphasizing the tenuous nature of legislative agreements. At present, the National Party holds 43 seats, LIBRE controls 41, the Liberal Party occupies 35, and the remaining seats are held by smaller and unaffiliated parties, necessitating ongoing dialogue to advance significant proposals.
LIBRE, on its side, has aimed to solidify its hold on institutions by trying to lead the CNE throughout the election process and keeping its sway in the Supreme Court of Justice. This pursuit of dominance has been met with opposition from rival parties, who perceive it as a threat to the election’s fairness and integrity. Moreover, the ongoing role of Defense Minister Rixi Moncada as a presidential candidate without stepping down has sparked ethical concerns and is seen as an indicator of the governing party’s ambition to retain power.
The gamble on a grand coalition and the future of democracy
In this context, several individuals have suggested that creating a large opposition coalition is the only feasible way to stop LIBRE’s progress. This alliance should encompass individuals like Salvador Nasralla, factions of the National Party, centrist liberals, new movements, and autonomous leaders. The aim would be to reestablish constitutional order, stop the spread of populist trends, boost the economy, and bring the nation together under a united national agenda.
However, building this coalition confronts challenges arising from suspicion, specific goals, and a past marked by internal conflicts. Failure to align efforts could result in a significant error, aiding the establishment of a one-party system and the undermining of democratic controls. With elections planned for November 30, 2025, there’s limited time to craft a strong response, and various segments of Honduran society view the potential for institutional backsliding as a genuine concern.
